According to the latest report released by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo who works at Tianfeng International, Xiaomi smartphone shipments in 2023 may be lower than market expectations, and Xiaomi's current inventory is 12-16 weeks, showing that the market is still too optimistic about the recovery of Xiaomi / Android phone shipments.
Xiaomi: analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects shipments to decline in the first half of 2023
Ming-Chi Kuo also said that shipments of Xiaomi devices in 2023 are expected to decrease by 8-10% year-on-year to around 140 million units (previously the brand managed to ship between 150 million and 165 million units).
Xiaomi's production plan in the first and second quarter of 2023 is "weak", about 23-25 million units and 20-23 million units respectively, and there is still no sign of significant improvement in the production plan of the third quarter of 2023.
Xiaomi's current inventory of phones and parts is around 40-50 million units, up to 12-16 weeks, which is still far from a good inventory level (typically up to 6 weeks), which represents l market expectation. There is also speculation that Xiaomi's inventory will correct to a reasonable level in the first half of 2023, but according to Ming-Chi Kuo, the market is still overly optimistic. In other words, if Xiaomi doesn't start emptying warehouses faster, its business won't be quite profitable.
Even though we have previously reported about a increase in shares on the stock exchange thanks to the popularity of ChatGPT / AI, Xiaomi is not necessarily the main beneficiary of this trend.
Recall that according to Omdia Research Institute, in 2022 Q4 Xiaomi shipped 33 million units, remaining the world's third largest smartphone maker, but compared to 41 million units in the previous quarter, there was a drop of 18%, and compared to 45 million units last year, a decline of 26,5%.
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